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Preparing video
Key points:
Tuckwell sees SpaceX’s IPO structure as a manufactured squeeze benefiting early sellers Suggests Musk is shifting Twitter and AI risk onto public shareholders via SpaceX Expresses strong scepticism about the practicality of “space data centres” and current valuation
David Tuckwell from ETF Shares views Elon Musk’s newly listed SpaceX on Nasdaq as a carefully engineered squeeze rather than a straightforward growth story. Tuckwell notes Musk reportedly restricts free float to trigger forced buying from index funds, helping drive the initial share price “pop”. He questions whether the current valuation, which he states sits around 100 times sales, can hold once lock‑ups expire and supply increases into December, while index-related demand fades.
Tuckwell argues the structure of SpaceX now bundles Starlink, Twitter and Musk’s AI ambitions into one vehicle, shifting considerable risk to public investors. He points out Twitter’s revenue reportedly falls sharply after Musk’s takeover, and sees the AI/data centre pivot as highly speculative.
On the flagship “space data centre” narrative, Tuckwell is openly sceptical. He cites physics concerns around heat dissipation in a vacuum, describing proposed workarounds as technically possible but deeply impractical, requiring kilometre‑scale infrastructure. With many Australian retail investors piling in through platforms such as CommSec, Tuckwell personally prefers selling rather than buying at current levels and expects index fund support, including from benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100, to taper over time.
