Company Interview / the open: ASX to tumble 🛢️ amid Trump threat

Key points:

Heightened Middle East tensions centred on the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure Bitcoin and crypto price moves seen as early barometer of weekend risk sentiment Oil surge and IEA warnings compared with 1970s-style energy shocks Markets rapidly repricing interest rate expectations and global growth outlook

Kyle Rodda from Capital.com flags a highly volatile start to the week as markets confront escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed threats from Donald Trump over the Strait of Hormuz. Rodda notes that Iranian and US rhetoric now focuses on critical energy infrastructure, with potential strikes on nuclear facilities and power plants seen as a major step-up in the conflict. He highlights that Iran is signalling its own list of regional targets, adding to market anxiety.

Rodda points out that Bitcoin falls 4–5% over the weekend as one of the few assets trading during the latest headlines, and he expects a “panicked” risk-off tone at the open. He links the spike in oil and gas to what the International Energy Agency characterises as the worst energy crisis in history, drawing comparisons to the 1970s oil shocks. In his view, markets have been complacent and are only now starting to price weaker global growth and higher inflation.

Rodda underlines that Brent crude is up about 50% in just a few months, feeding a sharp repricing in bond and rates markets. He notes a brief market-implied 50% chance of a US rate hike this year and sees Australian SPI futures pointing to a messy, risk-averse Asian session.