Market Wrap / strait talk

Australia’s sharemarket closes the week under pressure as geopolitics, inflation risks and looming central bank moves dominate sentiment, according to Shane Oliver from AMP.,Oliver views the unresolved conflict around the Strait of Hormuz as the primary global risk, arguing that a prolonged blockage could threaten oil supply just as crude prices rise for a fifth straight session. He notes this tension is feeding into volatile equity markets, with the S&P/ASX 200 down about 1.8% over the week, despite resilience in energy names including Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS), Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) and Ampol (ASX:ALD). Gold producers such as Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN), Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM) and West African Resources (ASX:WAF) weaken as the US dollar firms, while Newmont’s stronger quarterly update supports its share price. CSL (ASX:CSL) rebounds from an eight‑year low, and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) advances after approving a $1 billion Pilbara green energy investment.,Oliver characterises the macro backdrop as “messy”, citing rising bond yields, renewed stagflation concerns and sticky domestic inflation. He points to firm rental pressures and PMI price data as reasons money markets assign a high probability to an RBA rate hike in May, potentially leaving Australia out of step with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada, which he expects to remain on hold.,Key points
- Strait of Hormuz tensions seen as key risk to oil and global markets
- Energy stocks Woodside (ASX:WDS), Karoon (ASX:KAR), Ampol (ASX:ALD) benefit from higher crude prices
- Gold miners soften as US dollar strengthens; Newmont supported by quarterly update
- Oliver expects RBA may hike while other major central banks stay on hold due to Australian inflation pressures