Company Interview / Shane's View: Sticky ceasefire & the RBA's conundrum

Shane Oliver from AMP sets out a cautiously optimistic view on global markets, noting that the ASX is up about 4.4% for the week as investors respond to a ceasefire announcement and the prospect of de‑escalation in the Middle East. Oliver argues that global share markets have recovered roughly two‑thirds to three‑quarters of their slump from earlier in the year, with confidence tied closely to expectations that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalise.,Oliver points out that oil supply through the Strait remains only a fraction of pre‑war levels, estimating a current shortfall of around 10–15% of global supply. He states that while reserves and supply diversions are cushioning the blow, sustained high oil prices are still feeding through to consumers. His analysis suggests the average Australian household is paying about $80 extra per month for petrol, even after the excise cut, with diesel users seeing no real relief.,On inflation, Oliver expects fuel prices alone to contribute roughly 1.1–1.2 percentage points to CPI, pushing headline inflation towards 5%. He contends this, combined with wage pressures, is likely to force the Reserve Bank of Australia into at least one more rate hike, potentially as soon as May.,Key points:
- Strong weekly rebound in ASX and global shares tied to ceasefire optimism
- Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz still well below pre‑war levels
- Higher petrol and diesel costs seen as a significant drag on household spending
- Fuel‑driven inflation pressures likely to prompt further RBA rate hikes