Company Interview / Investing with boots on the ground

Key points:

Geopolitics and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz seen driving energy strengthSantos (ASX:STO) and Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) highlighted as energy standoutsLong-term bullish stance on gold and gold miners despite short-term weaknessConsumer discretionary and travel expected to remain under pressureWesfarmers (ASX:WES) viewed as a key sentiment and macro indicator

Henry Jennings from Marcus Today outlines a cautious view on markets as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on sentiment and drive volatility. Jennings sees the reported extension of timelines around potential US action as merely “buying time”, with Iran viewed as effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz. He notes energy stocks are in focus, with Santos (ASX:STO) and Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) standing out as beneficiaries of higher oil prices, while defence names such as DroneShield (ASX:DRO) and Elsight (ASX:ELS) appear softer despite the backdrop.

Jennings remains positive on gold over the longer term, despite recent selling pressure he attributes to liquidity needs and portfolio stress in areas like private credit and emerging markets. He highlights ongoing bullish sentiment among gold industry participants and points to US debt levels and expanding interest costs as key supports for physical gold and gold miners over time, given their leverage to the gold price.

On the domestic front, Jennings expects consumer discretionary and travel stocks to struggle as higher living costs bite, though he notes cohorts without mortgages and with savings are effectively receiving an income boost. Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) is on his watchlist as a key barometer of Australian consumer and industrial health, while the major banks and Telstra (ASX:TLS) are seen as cushioning the index from deeper sector-specific pain.