Company Interview / Buy the dip… but mind the cycle | the trade

Key points

Atkinson highlights one of the fastest S&P 500 rallies on record driven by stimulus, AI and earnings Oil viewed in a broad US$88–US$120 range with strong support still intact ASX performance seen as sector specific, with strength in Rio, banks and selected energy names Fortescue and Xero flagged as technical recovery candidates alongside improving software sector signals Bitcoin assessed as forming a potential double bottom with increasing institutional accumulation

Thomas Atkinson from FX Evolution sets out a bullish near-term technical backdrop for global risk assets, pointing to the S&P 500 trading at all‑time highs on the back of optimism around US fiscal stimulus, defence spending, AI‑driven capex and a resilient US earnings season. Atkinson notes this rally ranks among the fastest on record and suggests such V‑shaped recoveries often precede more volatile “buy‑the‑dip” conditions into the US election cycle.

Oil remains central to Atkinson’s macro view. He highlights large flows into US energy ETF XLE and describes crude as locked in a wide US$88–US$120 trading range, with the US$88 support zone currently holding. He expects prices to stay relatively elevated, limiting the scope for a sustained fall in inflation unless that key support breaks decisively.

On the ASX, Atkinson sees a sector‑driven market with copper names and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) leading, while banks such as Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) underpin index resilience. He points to Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) as technically constructive, with FMG breaking a downtrend and forming a potential double bottom. In tech, Atkinson watches Xero (ASX:XRO), Zip (ASX:ZIP) and global names like Microsoft ($MSFT) for early signs of recovery. He also flags Bitcoin’s potential double‑bottom around US$65,000 and rising commitment‑of‑traders accumulation as indications of improving sentiment.