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Key points:
ASX 200 support at 8683, year-end target 9600, potential outperformance over US peersMiddle East tensions could push Brent oil above $100, with Woodside (ASX:WDS), Santos (ASX:STO), Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) offering upsideGold sector expected to benefit, with Northern Star (ASX:NST), Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM), Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) highlightedOngoing volatility predicted across energy and commodities through 2026
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on global markets, with investors closely monitoring the impact on energy prices and Australian equities. Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares observes that the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) is showing minor weakness, with support at 8683 points. A break below this level could signal further declines to around 8400, though Todorova does not anticipate a significant downturn compared to other markets. Despite near-term turbulence, Todorova maintains a year-end target of 9600 points for the ASX 200, expressing confidence in its ongoing outperformance relative to US equity peers.
Oil price outlook remains a focal point, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns of a potentially prolonged conflict. Todorova points to historical precedents where extended instability drove oil from $26 to $146 a barrel over five years, suggesting that even $100 per barrel for Brent could be conservative. In her view, Australian energy stocks such as Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WDS), Santos (ASX:STO), and Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) are showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, with significant upside potential.
Todorova also highlights gold’s role as a safe haven amid market volatility. She expects gold and the broader ASX gold mining sector to perform strongly, mentioning Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM), and Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) as key beneficiaries if geopolitical tensions persist.
